CARUSO
- Stage 1 — Observable components: rim protection (shot suppression + deterrence), STOP rate (steals, charges, recovered blocks), rebounding over expected, and defensive activity (deflections, de-duplicated from steals). All measured per possession and normalized by position.
- Stage 2 — Learn component weights: a gradient-boosted model trained on player seasons from 2016–17 through 2023–24. Target variable is multi-year defensive RAPM. Produces a stat-based defensive prior.
- Stage 3 — RAPM blend: low-minute players lean on the prior; high-minute players lean on observed single-season impact. Position-specific shrinkage — bigs stabilize faster than guards.
The stated goal is interpretability first. Unlike APEX's Defensive Impact pillar (which blends D-LEBRON, D-EPM, and DBPM directly), CARUSO makes each component visible — you can see not just the score but the four inputs driving it.
"Defense is one of the hardest things to talk about clearly in basketball analytics. We have plenty of strong all-in-one metrics that do a good job describing overall impact. The issue is not really accuracy. It's explanation. When a player grades out well or poorly, it's often unclear why. CARUSO started as an attempt to answer a simpler question: Can we build a defensive metric where the reasons are obvious?"
Percentiles shown are relative to the full league. RIM = rim protection, REB = rebounding over expected, STOP = possession-ending events, DEFL = deflections.
| Rank | Player | Team · Pos | CARUSO | RIM | REB | STOP | DEFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Caruso | OKC · G | 2.19 | 39 | 71 | 99.9 | 93.9 |
| 2 | Ajay Mitchell | OKC · G | 1.89 | 56 | 83 | 92 | 27 |
| 3 | Neemias Queta | BOS · Big | 1.84 | 99 | 98 | 82 | 38 |
| 4 | Cason Wallace | OKC · G | 1.84 | 53 | 43 | 96 | 78 |
| 5 | Jaylin Williams | OKC · F | 1.78 | 80 | 98 | 66 | 55 |
| 6 | Ronald Holland II | DET · F | 1.64 | 77 | 77 | 98 | 4 |
| 7 | Paul Reed | DET · F | 1.59 | 75 | 84 | 100 | 93 |
| 8 | Rudy Gobert | MIN · Big | 1.51 | 98 | 93 | 65 | 58 |
| 9 | Chet Holmgren | OKC · Tweener | 1.43 | 99.9 | 92 | 89 | 56 |
| 10 | Isaiah Hartenstein | OKC · Tweener | 1.36 | 99 | 97 | 78 | 81 |
| Rank | Player | Team · Season | CARUSO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rudy Gobert | UTA · 2020–21 | 2.55 |
| 2 | Rudy Gobert | UTA · 2016–17 | 2.49 |
| 3 | Joel Embiid | PHI · 2017–18 | 2.43 |
| 3 | Alex Caruso | CHI · 2022–23 | 2.43 |
| 5 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL · 2019–20 | 2.36 |
| 6 | Alex Caruso | OKC · 2024–25 | 2.27 |
| 6 | Paul George | OKC · 2018–19 | 2.27 |
| 13 | Draymond Green | GSW · 2016–17 | 2.09 |
ConfusedComet23 is explicit that CARUSO is a work in progress. Rim protection and STOP rate are the most reliable components — clean, stable signals with consistent relationships to multi-year RAPM. Rebounding is the weakest link: the best way to capture rebounding impact is RAPM-style regression, and box plus tracking data historically predict RAPM rebounding impact poorly.
Six of the top 10 in the 2025–26 leaderboard play for Oklahoma City, which also leads the league in defensive rating by a wide margin. Critics correctly note that team context contaminates individual grades, and that CARUSO may overweight possession-ending events — OKC's specific defensive strength — relative to other forms of elite defense.